On January 20, Lingxiao Wang from FIAS will be the next speaker in our seminar on multiscale modeling of Covid-19. He will give a talk on "Machine learning Spatio-temporal epidemiological model to evaluate Germany-county-level COVID-19 risk".
Time: 20.01.2022 14:00
As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to ravage the world, it is of critical importance to provide a timely risk prediction of the COVID-19 in multi-level. To implement it and evaluate the public health policy, we develop a framework with machine learning assisted to extract epidemic dynamics from the real infection maps, in which contains a county-level spatio-temporal epidemiological model that combines a spatial Cellular Automata (CA) with a temporal Susceptible-Undiagnosed-Infected-Removed (SUIR) model. Compared with the existing time risk prediction models, the proposed CA-SUIR model shows the multi-level risk of the county to the government and residents with coronavirus transmission patterns under different policies. This new toolbox is first utilized to the projection of the multi-level COVID-19 prevalence over 412 Landkreis (counties) in the Germany, including t-day-ahead risk forecast and the risk assessment to the travel restriction policy. Such intervenable evaluation system could help decide on economic restarting and public health policy making in pandemic .